Dangote Refinery's Power Output Doubles What Nigeria Could Achieve in 11 Years

 

Dangote refinery| Photo Credit: Punch

Nigeria has struggled with chronic power shortages for decades, with promises to resolve the issue often dominating election campaigns. Over the past eleven years, the country added just 760 megawatts (MW) to the national grid. In stark contrast, the Dangote refinery generated 1,500 MW in a much shorter period, effectively doubling Nigeria’s power output.

 

Power Output Comparison 

Data from the Nigeria Electricity System Operator indicates that Generation Companies (Gencos) increased their delivery to Distribution Companies (Discos) via the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) by 22%, rising from an average of 3,400 MW in November 2013 to 4,160 MW as of June 12, 2024. However, since its construction in 2018, the Dangote refinery has produced 1,500 MW of power for self-consumption, a figure that surpasses the national grid’s expansion over more than a decade.

 

Statements from Key Figures 

Aliko Dangote highlighted this achievement at the Afreximbank Annual Meetings and AfriCaribbean Trade & Investment Forum in Nassau, The Bahamas. "We don’t put pressure on the grid. We produce about 1,500 megawatts of power for self-consumption," he stated.

 

Sector Analysis 

Despite billions of dollars in investment and an 11-year-old privatisation exercise, Nigeria’s power sector growth remains slow. Charles Akinbobola, a senior energy analyst at Sofidam Capital, expressed concerns: “The government and some operators in the sector may say there has been some form of growth since 2013, but in actual terms, how many people are benefiting from the privatised power sector? Most conglomerates are generating their power.”

 

Power Sector Challenges 

Akinbobola further added, “The challenge of the power sector has not entirely been the scarcity of funds; several trillions of naira have been pumped into that industry. The sector has been plagued by the shortcomings of its managers.”

 

Comparative Statistics 

Nigeria has the capacity to produce 13,000 MW of power, significantly less than South Africa’s 58,095 MW, despite having a similar-sized economy and a quarter of Nigeria’s population. Currently, Nigeria’s ageing grid delivers only about 4,000 MW to its over 200 million citizens, roughly equivalent to what Edinburgh provides for its 548,000 residents.

 

Population and Transmission Capacity 

Although Nigeria’s transmission capacity has increased by 20% to an average of 4,200 MW since 2013, the population has soared by 57%, from 131 million to 206 million, according to the latest World Bank estimates. This population surge further underscores the inadequacies in Nigeria’s power infrastructure.